What Is a Global Forest Transition and Can It Be Achieved in Our Lifetime?

Deforestation is a consequence of the increased need for agricultural land and timber harvesting. Increased population leads to an increased need for purposeful clearing of forested land. The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) reported that over 230 million hectares of forests will disappear by 2050 if no action is taken by companies and governments (WWF, 2015).

Despite the commitments to curb deforestation, countries around the globe are far from halting and reversing forest loss by 2030, as pledged by 141 countries during the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021. The data available on the Global Forest Watch platform, managed by the World Resources Institute (WRI), shows that in 2021 tropical countries lost approximately 11.1 million hectares of tree cover (Weisse and Goldman, n.d.). Of the total tree loss, over 3.75 million hectares occurred in tropical primary forests, areas with the most biologically diverse ecosystems on the planet (Weisse and Goldman, n.d.).

It is estimated that about 57% of the world’s habitable land was forested at the end of the great ice age (Roser, 2022). Ever since, human activities have contributed to the massive reduction of forest area at the global level. According to a chart by Our World in Data, over the last 10,000 years, humans have destroyed one-third of forests, which means forested land area declined from 6 to 4 billion hectares (Roser, 2022).

By far, agriculture is the largest contributor to deforestation. Agricultural pollution has many different sources, such as agricultural residues, fertilizers, and pesticides, leading to contamination, environmental degradation, and species loss. In forested areas, the agricultural industry cuts down forests to make space for fields to grow crops and pastures to raise livestock.   

The End of Deforestation?

The beginning of voluntary commitment to restoring forests and croplands started with the New York Declaration on Forests. This non-legally binding political declaration grew out of dialogue among governments, companies, and citizens at the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference (UN, n.d.). Global leaders endorsed a timeline to cut natural forest loss in half by 2020 and strive to end it by 2030. Furthermore, the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use was based on taking action to achieve the land use, climate, biodiversity, and sustainable development goals at the global and national levels (UN, n.d.).

Many countries succeeded in halting deforestation practices, while several countries have effectively turned it around. As a result, forests have started expanding around the globe. For instance, Indonesia, which signed both the 2014 New York Declaration and the 2021 Glasgow Declaration, experienced the most significant drop in primary tropical forest loss, with a 31% – nearly 1 million hectares, while Argentina (-52% or 77,000 ha), and Vietnam (-15% or 36,000 ha) experienced a decline of more than 30,000 hectares (Butler, 2021).

What Is Forest Transition?

Forest Transition is the reversal of deforestation to reforestation. Driven primarily by economic development, many countries started the process of moving from net loss to a net gain of forested area. Namely, off-farm employment is an effective solution to pull labor away from the agricultural sector while improving forest scarcity.

The forest transition process has significant variations across countries and regions globally. In fact, while some countries record a positive trend of reforestation, the consumers in these countries contribute to deforestation in other countries through transportation and import of goods. 

Technological progress helps accelerate the turnaround process of forest transition by reducing the demand for fuelwood and agricultural land. With the usage of fossil fuels, renewable energy sources, and nuclear power, demand for wood has significantly decreased. The use of alternative energy sources is coupled with the practical usage of existing farmland and achieving increased food production by a higher output per land area. Modern agriculture has allowed many countries globally to increase productivity and thus prevent land conversion from forest land to agricultural land. Innovative techniques have increased crop yields in combination with modern crops, fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation.

In addition to new technologies, policies and strict regulations are efficient complementation towards achieving the goal of global forest transition. Current deforestation policies include programs like REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation, and Forest Degradation of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). These initiatives provide financial support, strategies, and action plans for developing countries and farmers, with an ultimate goal to make the reforestation economically affordable. 

Can We Achieve a Global Forest Transition in Our Lifetime?

In the past, deforestation was at a high level, peaked in the first half of the 20th century, and since the 1990s, temperate forests have expanded in size. The world’s challenge today is to achieve the same succes

Suppose scientists, researchers, governments, and individuals engage in a joint action to decrease the demand for fuelwood and agricultural land. In that case, the chances of bringing deforestation in the tropics to seems feasible in our lifetime. Additionally, the world’s biodiversity could be successfully protected if we achieve the global forest transition. This opens the possibility of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions associated with deforestation. There is no universal method to bring deforestation to an end, but usage of modern energy sources, and effective conservation policies could prove to be a powerful duo toward global forest transition and forest expansion.      

Sources:

Butler, R. (2021). What countries are leaders in reducing deforestation? Which are not? Mongabay Environmental News. Retrieved from https://news.mongabay.com/2021/11/glasgow-declaration-what-countries-are-leaders-in-reducing-deforestation/

Roser, M. (2022). Humans destroyed forests for thousands of years – we can become the first generation that achieves a world in which forests expand. Our World in Data. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/global-forest-transition#:~:text=At%20the%20end%20of%20the,6%20to%204%20billion%20hectares.

United Nations. (n.d.) Glasgow leaders’ declaration on forests and land use. UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). Retrieved from https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/

Weisse, M., & Goldman, E. (n.d.). Forest pulse: The latest on the world’s forests: World Resources Institute. Retrieved from https://research.wri.org/gfr/latest-analysis-deforestation-trends

World Wide Fund for Nature. (2015). Over 80% of future deforestation confined to just 11 places. World Wide Fund for Nature. Retrieved from https://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?245370%2FOver-80-of-future-deforestation-confined-to-just-11-places#:~:text=The%20report%20builds%20on%20earlier,climate%20change%20and%20economic%20losses.

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